# India EV Adoption at an Inflexion Point: Nomura's September Data Explained

> Nomura puts electric two-wheeler share at 11.6% and passenger EV share at 7.9% in September, with further growth forecast by FY30.
- **Author**: Prakash
- **Published**: 2026-10-16
- **Modified**: 2026-10-19
- **Category**: news
- **URL**: https://bestev.in/news/india-ev-adoption-at-an-inflexion-point-nomuras-september-data-explained-20261016

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India's EV transition is reaching an inflexion point, according to a Nomura report covered by Financial Express on October 16. The brokerage puts electric vehicles at 11.6% of two-wheeler retail sales and 7.9% of passenger vehicle sales in September 2026.

Those figures compare with 6.5% and 4%, respectively, in FY26. The comparison is between a single month and a full financial-year benchmark.

## Nomura's FY30 EV outlook

The brokerage forecasts EV penetration of 12.7% for passenger vehicles, 22% for two-wheelers and 70% for three-wheelers by FY30.

These are forecasts, rather than confirmed future sales. Affordability, charging access, model availability and financing will influence whether adoption follows that path.

## Running costs strengthen the ownership case

The report identifies rising conventional-fuel prices as a factor improving EV economics.

BestEV's assessment is that a lower energy cost per kilometre is most valuable when a vehicle covers enough distance to offset its purchase-price premium. Home charging, public charging and fleet charging can produce substantially different outcomes.

Buyers should calculate the difference using their own electricity tariff, realistic efficiency and annual distance. A published payback example is not a universal ownership result.

## Why penetration figures can differ

Readers may encounter different September EV shares in other reports. Before comparing them, check whether the measure is retail registrations or manufacturer dispatches, which vehicle categories are included and when the data was extracted.

BestEV's earlier September coverage uses a passenger car/cab registration measure. It should not be combined mechanically with the 7.9% passenger-vehicle figure cited in this brokerage report.

## What the trend means for buyers

Higher adoption can support a wider choice of vehicles and stronger service coverage. It does not remove the need to assess an individual model's range, charging access, warranty and repair support.

For manufacturers, rising penetration increases the importance of dependable delivery and after-sales service. Selling more vehicles creates a larger installed base that will need parts, software support and battery expertise.

The central signal is growing mainstream demand. How evenly that demand develops across regions and vehicle categories remains a separate question.

Source: [Financial Express reporting on Nomura, October 16](https://www.financialexpress.com/business/industry-evs-hit-inflexion-point-telangana-leads-nomura-sees-tata-punch-tvs-iqube-drive-shift-4362953/).

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